西北地区水电在年度电力期货市场中的运营

针对水电在西北电力市场运营中月发电量的不确定性及月间发电量不均匀性的特征，在电力市场化运营的背景下，提出西北二级电力市场中水电站群期货电量的划分模型。以月发电过程统计特征为依据，进行期货电量的年内分解和调整，并从梯级水电运行特征的角度验证和解释期货电量的合理性，为水电站群在电力市场中的合约签订及电量分解提供了一种可行方法和依据。以西北电网为例，计算得主要水电站期货合约可签电量达多年平均发电量的65%左右，各月分解电量保证率达95%左右，通过对该结果内在机理的进一步阐述，验证了模型的有效性和合理性。

Operation of Hydropower Stations Located in Northwest China Participating in Annual Northwest Futures Electricity Market

According to the features of hydropower stations located in Northwest China, i.e., the uncertainty of monthly- generated energy and irregularity of monthly-generated energy in different months, a division model for features electricity quantity generated by hydropower station group in Northwest secondary electricity market is proposed. Based on the statistical characteristics of monthly power generation process, the annual features electricity quantity is decomposed and coordinated, and the reasonableness of features electricity quantity is verified and explained in the viewpoint of cascade hydropower stations' operation characteristics to provide basis and a feasible method for the award of contract and electricity quantity decomposition of hydropower station group in electricity market. Taking Northwest Power Grid for example, the calculation results show that by use of the proposed model, the possible electricity quantity of the principal hydropower stations could be awarded in features contract reaches about 65% of long term average annual power output and the assurance rate of monthly-decomposed electricity quantity reaches about 95%. By means of further expounding the inherent mechanism of the calculated results the effectiveness and reasonableness of the proposed model are validated.