不同季节光伏发电量与气象影响因子诊断分析*

本文利用多时间尺度下华中科技大学屋顶并网光伏电站1a(2010年3月~2011年2月)电量资料以及武汉站同期气象资料,根据天文因素的影响,研究不同季节下典型气象因子对光伏发电量的影响机制和多变量间耦合关系,结果表明：1)采用日尺度,武汉地区全年日光伏发电量与日太阳总辐射相关性最显著,其余依次是日照时数、气温日较差、日相对湿度(负相关)、日最高气温、日平均气温；2)不同季节下,影响光伏发电量的主要因子及其贡献也各不相同,除了太阳总辐射和日照时数外,夏季要考虑高温高湿的影响,春、秋、冬三季则要考虑气温日较差(反映天气类型)的影响；3)采用小时尺度,全年平均逐时光伏发电量与太阳总辐射的日(内)变化趋势基本一致：一日之间呈现单峰变化,早晚低,正午出现最大；而光伏发电量与日照时数的日(内)变化趋势差异较大。

DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS ON PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER GENERATION UNDER DIFFERENT SEASONS

1a multi-time scale power data (Mar. of 2010 to Feb. of 2011) from grid-connected photovoltaic power station in Huazhong University of Science and Technology and meteorological data over the same period from Wuhan Meteorological Station were obtained. Based on astronomical factors and solar geometry, the impact of typical meteorological factors on the photovoltaic power generation under different seasons and their multi-variable coupling relationship were analyzed. Results show that: 1) Adopting daily-scale, daily photovoltaic power generation in Wuhan during the whole year has the most significant correlation with daily global solar irradiation, followed by the rest of sunshine duration, diurnal temperature range, relative humidity (with negative correlation), daily maximum temperature, daily average temperature. 2) Under different seasons, the main factors that affect the photovoltaic power generation and its contribution are also different, in addition to global solar radiation and sunshine duration, with the influence of high temperature and high humidity in summer, and diurnal temperature range (indicating weather types) in the rest seasons. 3) Adopting hour-scale, diurnal change of photovoltaic power generation keeps almost the same as the global solar irradiation, low in the morning and evening, reaching the peak at noon with unimodal characteristics, which is different with diurnal change of sunshine duration.