2010-2014年江西省肿瘤登记地区肺癌发病率及时间趋势分析

目的 分析江西省肿瘤登记地区2010-2014年肺癌发病现状及时间变化趋势，为江西省制定肺癌防治策略提供依据。方法 依据2010-2014年江西省6个肿瘤登记地区肺癌发病数据，计算肺癌的发病率、标化率、累积率、截缩率、变化百分比（percentage change，PC）和年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC）等指标，并采用对数直线回归法对APC进行分析。结果 2010-2014年江西省肿瘤登记地区肺癌粗发病率为40.57/10万，中标率为24.99/10万，世标率为33.44/10万，0~74岁累积发病率为4.00%，35~64岁截缩率为44.32/10万；2010-2014年肺癌发病率由38.62/10万上升至43.92/10万，发病率、中标率、世标率APC值分别为11.12%、10.46%、11.38%，差异均无统计学意义；肺癌年龄别发病率随年龄增长而上升，男性上升幅度大于女性。结论 江西省肿瘤登记地区肺癌发病率有上升势头，45岁及以上男性是肺癌高危人群。

Analysis on trends in lung cancer incidence during 2010-2014 in Jiangxi Province: based on 6 population-based cancer registries

Objective To analyze the trends in lung cancer incidence during 2010-2014 in cancer registries of Jiangxi Province,and provide evidence for the development of strategies for lung cancer prevention.Methods The data of lung cancer in cancer registries of Jiangxi Province were collected to calculate the incidence,age-standardized incidence,cumulative rate,truncated rate,percentage change of incidence (PC),annual percentage change of incidence (APC),etc.The APC was estimated by liner regression based on the logarithm of the incidence rates observed.Results The crude incidence of lung cancer in cancer registries of Jiangxi Province from 2010 to 2014 was 40.57/100 000.The age-standardized incidence by Chinese standard population (ASI China) was 24.99/100 000.The age-standardized incidence by world standard population (ASI world) was 33.44/100 000.The cumulative rate and truncated rate of those aged 0-74 and 35-64 were 4.00％ and 44.32/100 000.The lung cancer incidence increased from 38.62/100 000 in 2010 to 43.92/100 000 in 2014.The APC of incidence,ASI China and ASI world were respectively 11.12％,10.46％ and 11.38％,but the differences had no statistical significance.The lung cancer incidence showed increasing trend with age,and the increase in male was greater than that in female.Condusions The lung cancer incidence increased year by year from 2010 to 2014 in cancer registries of Jiangxi Province.Males aged 45 years old and above were at a higher risk of lung cancer.