基于改进相对资源承载力模型的天山北坡可持续发展研究

某一区域人口可持续发展的重要保障在于这一区域的自然资源及经济资源禀赋条件，特定区域人口和经济的双重合理布局是可持续发展的基础。利用改进的相对资源承载力模型，计算2000-2010年天山北坡的相对资源人口承载力和相对资源经济承载力，探讨天山北坡各县市相对资源承载力的时空演变及差异特征。研究表明：① 以新疆为参照区，近10 a来天山北坡处于人口非常富余、经济超载或严重超载阶段。② 与全疆相比，水资源是天山北坡的优势资源，土地资源是制约天山北坡人口、经济发展的劣势资源。③ 以天山北坡为参照区，相对资源人口承载力非常富余度最大的是克拉玛依市，超载最严重的是博乐市；相对资源经济承载力超载最严重的是克拉玛依市，非常富余度最大的是奇台县。④ 依据相对资源人口、经济承载力的超载或富余状态，将天山北坡各县市归为4类资源承载力匹配区。

Sustainable Development in Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains Based on Improved Model of Carrying Capacity Related to Resources

Endowment of natural and economic resources is not only an important guarantee of regional population growth, but also the basis of sustainable development. Based on the improved model of carrying capacity related to resources, in this study the values of population carrying capacity and economic carrying capacity related to resources in northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains during the period from 2000 to 2010 were calculated. The spatiotemporal evolution and difference of these two carrying capacities in 14 counties and cities were investigated. The results were as follows: ① Compared with the situation in whole Xinjiang, the population growth was high and there was an overload or serious overload of economy related to resources in northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in recent decade; ② Compared with the situation in whole Xinjiang, water resources were advantageous to sustainable development in northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, but land resources were disadvantageous to restrict population growth and economic development; ③Compared with the situation in northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the surplus degree of population carrying capacity related to resources was the highest in Karamay City, and the overload was the most serious in Bole City; the overload of economic carrying capacity related to resources was the most serious in Karamay City, and the surplus degree was the highest in Qitai County; ④ According to the overload status or surplus degree of population carrying capacity and economic carrying capacity related to resources in the 14 counties and cities, the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains was classified into four matching modes.