全球热带海洋海表温度场异常对北极海冰的影响

本文利用1951?2021年哈德莱中心提供的海冰和海温最新资料以及美国国家海洋和大气管理局气候预报中心提供的NCEP/NCAR再分析资料，分析探讨了北极海冰70余年的长期变化特征，进而研究了其快速减少与热带海温场异常变化之间的联系，揭示了在全球热带海洋海温场变化与北极海冰之间存在密切联系的事实。结果表明，北极海冰异常变化最显著区域出现在格陵兰海、卡拉海和巴伦支海。热带不同海区对北极海冰的影响存在明显时滞时间和强度差异，热带大西洋的影响相比偏早，印度洋次之，太平洋偏晚。热带大西洋、印度洋和中东太平洋海温异常影响北极海冰的最佳时间分别是后者滞后26个月、30个月和34个月，全球热带海洋影响北极海冰的时滞时间为33个月。印度洋SST对北极海冰的影响程度最强，其次是太平洋，最弱是大西洋。全球热带海洋对北极海冰的影响过程中，热带东太平洋和印度洋起主导作用。当全球热带海洋SST出现正（负）距平时，北极海冰会出现偏少（多）的趋势，而AO、PNA、NAO对北极海冰变化起重要作用，是热带海洋与北极海冰相系数的重要“纽带”。而AO、PNA和NAO不仅受热带海洋SST的影响，同时也受太平洋年代际振荡PDO和大西洋多年代际AMO的影响，这一研究为未来北极海冰快速减少和全球气候变暖机理的深入研究提供理论支撑。

Impact of global tropical sea surface temperature anomalies on the Arctic sea ice variation

This paper analyzes and discusses the long-term variation characteristics of Arctic sea ice using the latest sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) data from 1951 to 2021 provided by Hadley Center and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from the Climate Prediction Center of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The relationship between the rapid decrease of Arctic sea ice and surface sea temperature anomaly (SSTA) in tropical oceans is also investigated, revealing that there is a close relationship between the changes in tropical sea surface temperature field and the Arctic sea ice variation. The results show that the most significant sea ice changes occur in the Greenland Sea, the Kara Sea and the Barents Sea. Notably, the influence of the different tropical ocean areas on the Arctic sea ice shows noticeable temporal and spatial differences. The tropical Atlantic has the earliest impact on Arctic sea ice cover, followed by the Indian and Pacific oceans. Meanwhile, we found that 26-month, 30-month and 34-month lag is the optimal time-lagged correlation time period between Arctic sea ice and SSTA in the tropical Atlantic, the tropical Indian Ocean and Middle-Eastern Pacific, respectively and the mean value among them is a 33-month lag. The most substantial impact of SST on arctic sea ice occurs in the Indian Ocean, followed by the Pacific Ocean and the weakest in the Atlantic Ocean. When the tropical oceans appear positive (negative) SSTA, the arctic sea ice tends to be less (more). Moreover, Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) contribute significantly to the Arctic sea ice change, which are the key processes leading to the abnormal Arctic sea ice change. The AO, PNA and NAO are not only influenced by the SST of the tropical ocean, but also by the Pacific Ocean Decadal Oscillation (PDO) of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). Our study aims to provide theoretical support for future research on the mechanism of the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice and global warming.