基于层次分析法和模糊理论的小型水库土石坝安全评价

鉴于水库大坝安全状态评价的模糊性和层次性，通过分析我国小型水库土石坝结构特征和破坏机理，构建结构安全状态评价指标体系，提出基于层次分析法和模糊理论的小型水库土石坝安全评价方法。利用模糊理论对层次分析法计算的权重进行修正，得到评价体系中各指标的隶属度值，根据最大隶属度原则确定结构安全状态的模糊综合评价结果。研究以浙江省杭州市余杭区康门小型水库土石坝为工程实例，应用本文的指标体系和模糊综合评价方法对其进行结构安全状态评估。将结果与工程实际对比发现两者基本一致，验证了本文所提出的指标体系及评价方法的有效性，可为小型水库土石坝的结构安全评价提供借鉴和参考依据。

Safety evaluation of small earth-rockfill dams based on analytical hierarchy process method and fuzzy theory

In view of the fuzziness and hierarchy of dam safety evaluation, the structural characteristics and failure mechanism of small earth-rockfill dams in China are analyzed to construct a safety evaluation index system considering the multi-criteria and multi-factors involved, based on which, a safety evaluation method is proposed combining analytical hierarchy process and fuzzy theory. According to this method, the weight of each index is calculated by the analytical hierarchy process and then modified by the fuzzy theory, so the membership value of each index in the evaluation system is obtained, and the evaluation result of the structure safety state is determined according to the maximum membership principle. In the study, the Kangmen Reservoir earth-rockfill dam in Yuhang District, Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province is taken as a practical engineering example, and the proposed index system and evaluation method are applied to evaluate its structural safety level. Comparing the calculated evaluation results with the actual engineering situation, it can be found that the two are basically consistent, which in turn verifies the effectiveness of the index system and evaluation method. This study can provide a reference for the structural safety evaluation of earth-rockfill dams of small reservoirs.