2020年中国碳市场回顾与展望

截至2019年,全球已经投入运行的碳排放权交易体系覆盖了全球温室气体排放总量的约8%,未来全球碳市场的规模有望进一步扩大。2017年底,中国启动了纳入发电行业的全国碳市场,未来正式开启交易后预计年配额将达到30多亿吨CO₂,成为超越欧盟的全球第一大碳市场。2018—2019年,中国碳市场主要进行基础能力建设工作,七个试点碳市场仍在继续运行,未来将逐步向全国碳市场过渡。截至2019年底,七个试点共完成线上配额交易量1.8亿吨,实现交易额41.3亿元,其中湖北碳市场成交总量和成交总额最高,北京碳市场成交均价最高,北京、上海、湖北、广东和深圳碳市场表现较为活跃,天津和重庆碳市场表现相对低迷。预计2020年后,全国碳市场将迎来发电行业首单配额交易,“十四五”期间逐步纳入其他高耗能行业。当前中国已经实现了2020年的碳强度在2005年的基础上降低40%~45%的减排目标,未来全国碳市场的顺利运行将对中国低成本实现碳排放在2030年前尽早达峰发挥积极作用。

China's Carbon Market:Reviews and Prospects for 2020

By the end of 2019,twenty-one emission trading systems(ETS)worldwide have been put into operation.They covered about 8%of global greenhouse gas emissions.The size of the global carbon market is expected to expand further in the future.China launched the national carbon market by the end of 2017.It covered the power generation industry first.The annual quota is expected to reach more than 3 billion tons of carbon dioxide after the formal operation.China''s national carbon market will become the world''s largest carbon market beyond the EU ETS.During 2018-2019,China''s national carbon market mainly carried out fundamental construction.Seven pilots will continue to operate and gradually transfer into the national carbon market in the future.Seven pilots have accomplished 180 million tons online trading volume and 4.13 billion yuan of volume of business.Hubei carbon market had the highest volume of business and trading volume;while Beijing carbon market had the highest average transaction price.The carbon markets in Beijing,Shanghai,Hubei,Guangdong,and Shenzhen were more active;while those in Tianjin and Chongqing were relatively sluggish.The power generation industry of the national carbon market is excepted to make its first transaction after 2020.The national carbon market will gradually cover other energy-intensive industries during the "14th Five-Year" Plan period.At present,China has achieved the target of reducing carbon intensity by 40%~45% on the basis of 2005.The stable operation of the national carbon market in the future will play a positive role in achieving the goal of carbon peak by 2030 in China.