江苏省昆山市1981~2015年去胃癌死因期望寿命与潜在减寿年分析

目的]探讨昆山市1981～2015年去胃癌可增加期望寿命和胃癌所致的潜在减寿年时间趋势.方法] 1981～2015年恶性肿瘤死亡病例来源于死因监测,以计算去胃癌死因可增加期望寿命和潜在减寿年;去胃癌死因可增加期望寿命=去胃癌死因期望寿命-平均期望寿命.用中国2000年第五次人口普查的年龄结构计算分性别的年龄标化潜在减寿年.使用年度变化百分比(eAPC)评价去胃癌可增加期望寿命和潜在减寿年在年份之间的变化趋势.结果]总人群中去胃癌死因期望寿命由1981年的0.82岁下降到2015年的0.54岁(APC=-1.4％,95％CI:-1.8％～-1.0％);男性人群(APC=-1.3％,95％CI:-1.8％～-0.8％)和女性人群(APC=-1.5％,95％CI:-2.1％～-0.9％)去胃癌死因可增加期望寿命也呈现下降趋势.胃癌所致的标化潜在减寿年在总人群(APC=-4.3％,95％CI:-4.8％～-3.8％)、男性人群(APC=-4.8％,95％CI:-5.4％～-4.2％)及女性人群(APC=-3.4％,95％CI:-4.3％～-2.5％)均明显下降.结论]去胃癌死因可增加期望寿命和胃癌所致的年龄标化潜在减寿年在35年间持续下降,说明因胃癌所致过早死亡和对全人群健康影响均在持续下降.

Impact of Gastric Cancer Deaths on Life Expectancy and Potential Years of Life Lost from 1981 to 2015 in Kunshan City,Jiangsu Province

Purpuse] To examine impact of gastric cancer on life expectancy and potential years of life lost (PYLL) in Kunshan City,Jiangsu Province,1981～2015.Methods] Data were collected from vital registry of Kunshan city.Gastric cancer-eliminated life expectancy and the PYLL were calculated.Increased life expectancy by elimination of gastric cancer was defined as gastric cancer-eliminated life expectancy minus average life expectancy.The Chinese population in 2000 was used to calculate age-standardized PYLL.Estimate annual percentage changes (eAPC) and 95％ confidence interval (CI) were used to examine the temporal trend of increased gastric cancer-eliminated life expectancy and PYLL.Results] During 1981 to 2015,substantially decreasing trend was observed for the increased gastric cancer-eliminated life expectancy,which decreased by 0.82 years in 1981 to 0.54 in 2015 (APC=-1.4％,95％CI:-1.8％～-1.0％),and there were a significant decreasing trend was found both in males (APC=-1.3％,95％CI:-1.8％～-0.8％) and in females (APC =-1.5％,95％ CI:-2.1％ ～-0.9％).Moreover,the age-standardized PYLL among both sex (APC=-4.3％,95％CI:-4.8％～-3.8％),males (APC=-4.8％,95％CI:-5.4％～-4.2％) and females (APC=-3.4％,95％CI:-4.3％～-2.5％) were all decreased.Conclusion] An overall decreasing trends are observed in increased gastric cancer-eliminated life expectancy and age standardized PYLL in Kunshan City 1981～2015,indicating that the impact of gastric cancer on premature deaths in the population has been alleviated gradually.