灰色系统方法在洪水径流预测中的应用研究与展望

概述了应用于洪水径流预报的灰色系统方法，包括灰色系统方法简介，区域水文模式与大气环流模式的耦合，因果序列的灰关联模式预测，全因果序列扩维的灰关联模式预测，微分动态（１，Ｎ）模型预测和灰色参数区间模型预测等，并对这些方法以及发展趋势进行了讨论，提出了初步建议。

GREY SYSTEM APPROACH APPLIED TO FLOOD AND RUNOFF FORECASTING

An overview of the achieved advances and emerging trends in the Grey System Approach applied to flood and runoff forecasting or prediction is presented in this paper. Main summary involves five-folds: (1)Introduction of grey system theory;(2)Grey system approach applied to coupling General Circulation Models (GCMs) with Regional Hydrological Models, some of problems of uncertainty on the process of downscaling from GCMs to hydrological models were discussed;(3)Grey associated analysis applied to runoff mid-long terms runoff prediction; (4)Grey Differential Models applied to prediction of flood disastrous events; (5) Grey Parameter Prediction Models and application to monthly runoff forecasting etc'Some of discussions on this approach and application are also given in the paper.