基于小样本Bayes理论的可靠性评估方法

针对产品由于研制中造价昂贵、试验费用高无法投入大量试验样品出现的小样本问题,提出了充分融合各种验前信息,研究了常见验前信息分布、验前信息的获取方法、验前信息的可信度确定,将Bayes方法技术运用于性能退化轨迹模型的建模过程中,有效地解决了产品性能退化模型建模不精确的问题。

Research on Reliability Evaluation Method Based on Bayes Theory of Small-sample

Aiming at the problem of the small-sample tests,because of the high-paid in design and manufacturing improvement,it is put forward that all kinds of information should be fully used.The former information distributing,its obtaining and its reliability are provided.Bayes technique is used to model the performance degradation path.The modeling problem is solved effectively in performance degradation analysis.