局域支持向量回归与误差区间估计的概率预报方法及其应用研究

 针对工程应用对预报技术要求的不断提高以及现有预报方法存在的问题，本文提出了一种局域支持向量回归(Local Support Vector Regression，LSVR)和误差区间估计相结合的概率预报方法，该方法利用局域支持向量回归降低噪声对点预报的干扰，提高预报的可靠性和准确性，利用非参数核估计获取误差区间，避免误差概率分布特性假设，再将点预报和误差区间结合获得预报置信区间，并进一步给出了联合预报置信区间.最后，给出了电网负荷预报和供热负荷预报算例，验证了所提出方法的有效性和实用性.

Probabilistic Prediction Approach Based on Local Support Vector Regression and Interval Estimation of Its Error

With the increasing requirements of the predicting technologies for engineering,in this paper,a probabilistic prediction approach based on Local Support Vector Regression(LSVR) and interval estimation of its error is proposed to cope with the shortage of existing prediction methods.By means of the proposed approach,LSVR model is used in point prediction to suppress noise interference,while the prediction reliability and accuracy could be improved,and the errors intervals,which avoid the distributional assum...