基于MaxEnt模型预测气候变化下飞扬草在中国的潜在地理分布

为明确入侵杂草飞扬草Euphorbia hirta Linn.在中国的潜在地理分布，基于MaxEnt模型结合ArcGIS地理信息系统软件，对飞扬草在历史气候及未来气候2个情景下的潜在适生区进行预测，并采用刀切法分析各环境因子对飞扬草适生区的影响。结果显示，在飞扬草潜在地理分布变化过程中，影响最大的环境因子是最湿季度降水量，其次是最暖季度平均温度。历史气候条件下，飞扬草在中国的总适生区面积占全国陆地总面积的32.45%，其中高适生区占13.57%，中适生区占10.06%，低适生区占8.82%。未来气候条件下，预测结果表明2050年飞扬草的潜在适生区将进一步扩张，其中在高强迫SSP585情景下飞扬草的总适生区面积大于低强迫SSP126情景下的总适生区面积，而SSP126情景下的高适生区面积则大于SSP585情景下的高适生区面积。表明飞扬草在中国的潜在适生区分布范围较广，可能在未来进一步扩散至全国，建议相关部门加强监控，防止飞扬草进一步入侵和扩散。

Potential geographical distribution of asthma plant Euphorbia hirta based on MaxEnt under predicted future climate conditions

To predict the potential geographical distribution of an alien invasive weed Euphorbia hirta Linn. in China, the suitable areas under historical and future climate conditions were predicted based on the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software. The Jackknife method was used to analyze the influence of various environmental factors on the suitable establishment areas for E. hirta. The results showed that in the process of changes in the potential geographical distribution of E. hirta, the environmental factor with the greatest influence was the precipitation of the wettest quarter, followed by the mean temperature of warmest quarter. Under historical climate conditions, the potential geographical distribution areas of E. hirta in China accounts for 32.45% of total land area, of which the highly suitable area accounts for 13.57%, the moderately suitable area accounts for 10.06%, and the slightly suitable area accounts for 8.82%. Based on future climate conditions, prediction results indicated that the suitable areas of E. hirta will further expand in 2050. The total area of potential distribution of E. hirta under SSP585 scenario was higher than that under SSP126 scenario, while the areas of highly suitable area of E. hirta under SSP126 scenario was higher than that under SSP585 scenario. This indicates that the potentially suitable habitat area of E. hirta in China is relatively wide, and it may further spread to the whole country in the future. It is recommended that relevant departments strengthen monitoring to prevent further invasion and spread of E. hirta.