基于MaxEnt和ArcGIS的黑腹尼虎天牛潜在地理分布预测

为明确我国检疫性有害生物黑腹尼虎天牛Neoclytus acuminatus的潜在地理分布范围，基于MaxEnt模型、ArcGIS软件及全球分布数据预测当前气候和未来气候（2个情景）条件下黑腹尼虎天牛在全球和中国的潜在分布区域，并分析影响黑腹尼虎天牛分布的关键环境变量。结果显示，MaxEnt模型的曲线下面积（area under curve，AUC）为0.962，表明模型预测结果可靠；影响黑腹尼虎天牛潜在地理分布的5个关键环境变量分别是5月平均降雨量、11月平均最高温度、温度变化方差、7月平均降雨量和最湿季度平均气温，贡献率分别为40.5%、33.2%、23.9%、2.2%和0.1%。在当前气候条件下，黑腹尼虎天牛在全球的适生区较广泛，总面积约为3 928.63×10⁴ km²，且在我国湖北、安徽及浙江等省存在高适生区和中适生区；在未来气候条件下，黑腹尼虎天牛在全球范围内的适生区总面积会进一步增加，并且在我国的高适生区面积也会进一步扩大。

Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of red-headed ash borer Neoclytus acuminatus based on MaxEnt and ArcGIS

To investigate the potential distribution of red-headed ash borer Neoclytus acuminatus, a quarantine pest in China, the MaxEnt model, ArcGIS software and global distribution data were utilized to predict the potential habitat of N. acuminatus under current climate and two future scenarios. Meanwhile, the factors affecting its distribution ware analyzed. The MaxEnt model demonstrated high reliability with an area under curve (AUC) value of 0.962. The climatic factors influencing the potential geographical distribution of N. acuminatus included precipitation in May, maximum temperature in November, temperature seasonality, precipitation in July, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter. Their respective percent contributions were 40.5%, 33.2%, 23.9%, 2.2% and 0.1%. Under the current climate, N. acuminatus exhibited an extensive potential geographical distribution, covering a total area of 3 928.63×10⁴ km². In addition, Hubei, Anhui, Zhejiang and other provinces in China contained highly and moderately suitable areas. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable areas for N. acuminatus were projected to expand globally, with a concurrent expansion in highly suitable area in China.