基于适度人口容量的新型城镇化发展分析——以宁夏5个地级市为例

通过构建经济承载力、土地承载力、可供水资源承载力、建设用地承载力与生态环境承载力人口容量模型综合测度研究区5市理论城镇化发展水平,从而与实际城镇化发展水平进行对比分析。结果表明：（1）银川市与石嘴山市实际城镇化发展水平高于理论城镇化发展水平,且城市人口潜力指数大,具有吸纳外来人口的能力;（2）吴忠市、中卫市和固原市实际城镇化水平低于理论城镇化水平,城镇化发展水平偏低,且人口潜力指数较小,不具备吸纳外来人口的能力。以此为依据,为不同人口密度等级区新型城镇化发展提出相应的对策与建议：（1）对于人口极密集区与密集区,一方面应加强中心城市的辐射带动能力,另一方面加强政府引导作用,推动人口市民化进程与城市空间协调发展;（2）对于人口中等区,一方面,加强中心城市的拉力作用,另一方面,创造农村推力作用,着力解决城镇化过程中流动人口的“后顾之忧”;（3）对于人口稀少与极稀区,一方面应鼓励就地城镇化,另一方面要打破城乡二元结构,促进本区域城镇化发展水平。

Development of New Urbanization Based on Moderate Population Capacity: Five Cities in Ningxia

The theoratical urbanization development levels of five cities are measured comprehensively by constructing the model of the carrying capacity of economy, land, water supply resources, construction land and ecological environment as well as the carrying capacity of population, then the results are compared with the actual urbanization development. The study indicates that: (1) the actual urbanization development of Yinchuan and Shizuishan are better than the theoretical one, the urban population potential index is large, therefore, the two cities are endowed with the ability to absorb non- native population; (2) the actual urbanization development of Wuzhong, Zhongwei and Guyuan are lower than the theoretical one, their urbanization development is low, and the population potential index is small, so the three cities do not possess the ability of absorbing non-native population. Based on this, corresponding countermeasures are put forward for new urbanization development in regions of different grades of population density: (1) for extremely densely populated and densely populated areas, on the one hand, radiative driving capability of the central city should be strengthened, and on the other hand, the guiding role of the government shall also be enhanced to promote the coordinated development of the citizenization process and the urban space; (2) for areas where population size is medium, the driving role of central cities should be strengthened while the pushing force of rural areas should be created to solve the worries of floating population during urbanization; (3) for sparsely populated and extremely sparesly populated areas, urbanization should be encouraged while urban-rural dual structure should be broken to promote the development of urbanization.