基于报废量预测的电子废弃物回收产业现状与对策 —— 以长三角为例

长三角为我国经济最活跃、电子废弃物回收产业发展相对完善的地区之一。运用stata多元回归分析报废量的影响因素,用Holt模型预测长三角区域电子废弃物报废量。结果显示, 2050年电视机累计报废量将达到35亿台,手机报废量将达到65亿部。通过分析长三角电子废弃物回收产业规模、回收体系、地方性法律政策及公共意识4个方面,发现在回收体系构建方面,仍然存在非正规回收渠道占据主要市场,正规企业产能过剩以及回收点覆盖不合理等问题。结合未来电子废弃物报废量与回收产业现状,提出了系统性的政策建议。

Current Situation and Countermeasures of Electronic Waste Recycling Industry Based on Recycling Volume Forecast: An Example of the Yangtze River Delta

The Yangtze River Delta is one of the most active economic regions and the relatively complete development of the e-waste recycling industry in China. The stata multiple regression analysis is used to analyze the influencing factors of scrap volume, and Holt model is for predicting the scale of e-waste scrap in the Yangtze River Delta.The result shows that the cumulative scrap of TV sets and mobile phones will reach 3.5 billion and 6.5 billion in 2050. However, by analyzing four aspects of the scale of the e-waste recycling industry in the Yangtze River Delta, recycling systems, local laws and policies, and public awareness, there are still problems in the construction of recycling system, such as informal recycling channels that still occupy the main market, overcapacity of formal enterprises, and unreasonable coverage of recycling points. Combined with the current situation of the recycling industry and the amount of discarded e-waste in the future, systematic policy suggestions are proposed.