应用模糊评判法评价塔河油藏水锥风险

塔河底水缝洞型油藏投入开发以来，每年因含水上升导致产量递减占65％左右，如何做好控水工作是开发中的重要任务。针对塔河油田的实际情况，利用各种静、动态资料和测试手段，在相关地质研究成果和开发特征分析的基础上，依据备类缝洞单元的储集体发育、含水变化规律、天然能量等方面的研究，深化塔河油田缝洞型储集体的认识，结合注水替油井现场生产动态数据及监测资料，在总结前人研究成果的基础上，应用模糊综合评判法评价缝洞型储集体水锥风险，及早提出预警方案。生产实践评价结果表明，建立的水锥风险预警方法具有一定适应性，在一定程度上对油田开发生产管理可以起到辅助决策的作用，为提高缝洞型碳酸盐岩油藏采收率提供技术支撑。

Evaluate the Risk of Water Coning of Tahe Reservoir Based on Fuzzy Evaluation

For the development of Tahe fracture--cavity bottom water reservoir, about 65 percent of production decline is due to the bottom water rising every year. The water control work is the important task on development process. For the actual development situation of Tahe oil field, using variety of static and dynamic data and testing methods, based on the geological characteristics and development character analysis research result9 combined various types of reservoir development of fracture- cavity units, changes of water rate, natural energy and so on, recognize the fracture- cavity reservoir unit deeply. Combined production performance and monitoring data on water injection for oil field, summarized the re- sults of previous research results, evaluate the risk of water coning and give the waning program of Tahe reservoir using fuzzy evaluation method. Production practice evaluation results show that the establish- ment of early warning of the risk of water--cone method has certain flexibility. To certain extent, this method can play a supporting role in the decision--making on oil field development and production manage- ment, and can provide technical support to improve oil recovery of fracture--cavity carbonate reservoir.