基于广义线性模型的火工品可靠性数据分析

为提高小样本量下火工品可靠性分析的精度,依据火工品感度试验与可靠性分析的特点,提出了一种基于广义线性模型的火工品可靠性分析方法。该方法通过函数变换,将样本似然函数转换为二项分布变量的广义线性表达式,由此,得到感度分布参数的极大似然估计及其相应算法,再根据极大似然估计的渐近正态性,对可靠度函数进行了logit变换,给出了火工品可靠度置信下限。通过某针刺雷管(γ=0.95,R≥0.999)和电雷管(γ=0.95,R≥0.9999)对该方法进行了实验验证,并与大样本试验数据分析结果进行对比,结果表明该方法合理可行,可利用约150个样本对可靠性要求为0.999以上的火工品进行有效评价。

Reliability Analysis for Explosive Initiator Based on Generalized Linear Models

In order to improve the reliability analysis of the explosive initiator with small sample size, a method based on generalized linear models of reliability analysis for explosive initiator was proposed according to sensitivity test and characteristics of reliability analysis. The likelihood function was transformed to a generalized linear expression of binomial variable. Using the generalized linear model for binomial distribution, the maximum likelihood estimations of the model coefficients were obtained, and corresponding arithmetic was put forward. With the asymptotic normality of maximum likelihood estimations, the approximated confidence interval for the reliability was obtained by logit transform of reliability fuaction. The present method was validated by the test data of stab detonator and electronic detonator. Results show that using about 150 samples is available to analysis the explosive initiator with a reliability goal of 0.999 by the method in this research.