台风浪对掠海飞行器击水概率的影响

利用CCMP风场驱动目前国际先进的第3代海浪模式WW3，对发生在中国海的台风浪进行数值模拟，在国内首次利用来自日本、韩国的海浪观测资料，对模拟数据的有效性进行检验，并分析台风浪对掠海飞行器击水概率的影响，为提高导弹等掠海飞行器的生存和突防能力提供参考。研究发现：（1）模拟的海浪数据与观测数据具有较好的一致性，WW3模式较好地刻画了发生在中国近海的台风浪过程；（2）击水概率的大小因飞行高度呈现较大差异；（3）通过对3个转向型台风的分析发现，台风西行时，击水概率的大值区主要分布于第1、第4象限，北上时，击水概率的大值区主要分布于第1、第2象限，东北行时，击水概率的大值区主要分布于第1象限；（4）台风西行、北上时，台风中心位于击水概率大值区的南部，东北行时，台风中心位于击水概率大值区的西部。

Impact of typhoon wave on ditching probability of sea skimming flying vehicle

The typhoon wave field of the China Sea was simulated with WW3 wave model forced by cross calibrated multi platform(CCMP) wind field firstly. Then the impact of typhoon wave on ditching probability of sea skimming flying vehicle was analyzed. The following four results were obtained.First,the wave datum simulated is consistent with the observational situation, which displays the excellent numerical simulation ability of WW3 model of the typhoon wave process over the China Sea areas. Second,there exist quite significant differences between the ditching probabilities according to different flight altitudes. Third,the cases studies of 3 recurvatures typhoon tracks depict that large ditching probability happen in the quadrant of 1st and 4th of typhoon when it moves westward.While the large value distributes mainly in the first and second quadrant with the northward typhoon movement, large value exists mainly in the first quadrant if the typhoon turns northeastward.Fourth,it shows the possible relationship between typhoon centers and the large ditching probability value areas. The typhoon centers on the south of the larger ditching probability value area, when the recurvature track of typhoons is westward and northward. The typhoon locates west to the large value with the northeastward typhoon track.