逐步判别分析在妊高征预测性诊断中的应用

目的:寻找一种准确、有效、简单易行的预测性诊断妊高征的方法。方法:用1:1配比的病例对照研究方法,收集妊高征发生的可能影响因素,采用逐步判别分析法进行分析。结果:对13个自变量通过逐步判别分析,筛选出5个有统计学意义的变量构建判别模型,用此模型对180个观察对象作回顾性评价,其灵敏度为94.4%,特异度为91.1%,阳性预测值为91.4%,阴性预测值为94.3%,误判率为7.2%;还用此模型对40个观察对象作前瞻性评价,其灵敏度为95.0%,特异度为90.0%,阳性预测值为90.5%,阴性预测值为94.7%,误判率为7.5%。结论:逐步判别分析方法可望成为一种准确、有效、简单易行的预测性诊断妊高征的工具。

The Application of Stepwise Discriminant Analysis on Predicting Occurrence of Pregnancy Induced Hypertension

Objective: To seek a accurate,effective,simple and economic method for predicting occurrence of pregnancy induced hypertension.Method Information on influence factors were collected with 1:1 matched case-control study.Date was analyzed by stepwise discriminant analysis.Results: A Fisher's function on predicting occurrence of pregnancy induced hypertension was established by stepwise discriminant analysis,which was including 5 variables out of 18.One hundred and eighty individuals were discriminated retrospectively by the function with sensitivity of 94.4%,specificity of 91.1%,positive predictive value of 91.4%,negative predictive value of 94.3% and error rate of 7.2%.In addition,forty individuals were discriminated prospectively by the function with sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value,negative predictive value,error rate with results of 95.0%,90.0%,90.5%,94.7% and 7.5% respectively.Conclusion: Stepwise discriminant analysis might serve as accurate,effective,simple and economic tool for predicting occurrence of pregnancy induced hypertension.