重载铁路轨道高低不平顺预测研究

轨道不平顺严重威胁铁路行车安全和设备的使用寿命。研究轨道高低不平顺的变化特点和劣化规律对重载铁路轨道维修管理有重要指导作用。基于灰色区间预测建模理论,研究重载铁路轨道高低不平顺变化特点和劣化规律,预测轨道高低不平顺未来的发展情况。为验证预测模型的有效性,采用神朔铁路上行10个高低超限病害高发单元区段的共17个月的历史轨道高低不平顺检测数据进行验证。结果表明:该模型拟合和预测效果良好,对神朔铁路轨道的养护维修管理有着重要意义。

Research on the Prediction of Track Vertical Profile Irregularity of Heavy Haul Railway

Track irregularity seriously threatens the traffic safety and equipment service life of railway.The research on the variation characteristics and degradation law of track vertical profile irregularity plays an important guiding role in the track maintenance management of heavy haul railway. Based on grey interval prediction modeling theory,this paper conducts researches on the variation characteristics and degradation law of the track vertical profile irregularity of heavy haul railway,and predicts the future development of track vertical profile irregularity. In order to verifies the effectiveness of the prediction models,historical track vertical profile irregularity data of 17 months are obtained from 10 segments of Shenmu-Shuozhou Railway with most frequent irregularity,and the results show that the models are effective in fitting and predict of the track vertical profile irregularity,and are of great significance to the track maintenance management of Shenmu-Shuozhou Railway.