石羊河流域水服务供需状况及驱动因素

以2010—2018年为时间序列,基于InVEST模型和水足迹理论,对石羊河流域水服务供需特征及其匹配状况进行分析,最后采用地理探测器对水服务供需状况空间异质性及其主要驱动力因子进行了探究。结果表明:(1)2010—2018年石羊河流域水服务供给能力有所提高,空间上呈现出南高北低的态势;水服务需求总量呈显著的上升趋势,流域中部灌溉农业区和工业地带的水服务需求较大;(2)研究时段内石羊河流域水服务供需匹配状况有明显的改善,2018年能完全满足水服务供给需求的区域较2010年增长了24.9%;(3)石羊河流域土地利用类型和其他影响因子的交互作用最为明显,在不同的分区中,各因子的解释能力存在着显著的差异。在地形平坦的中下游干旱区,土地利用类型对ESDR空间分异的解释力最强;而在地表起伏度较大的上游高寒半干旱半湿润地区,年降水和潜在蒸散发的解释能力不断增强,成为主导驱动力因子。研究成果为石羊河流域水资源研究和利用规划提供了参考。

Water Service Supply and Demand Situation and Driving Factors in Shiyang River Basin

Based on the InVEST model and water footprint theory, the characteristics and matching status of water service supply and demand in Shiyang River Basin were analyzed, and the spatial heterogeneity of water service supply and demand status and its main driving factors were explored by using geographical detector. The results showed that:(1) From 2010 to 2018, the water service supply capacity was improved, showing a spatial trend of high in the south and low in the north. The total demand for water service showed a significant rising trend, and the demand for water service in irrigated agricultural areas and industrial areas in the middle of the basin was large. (2) The water service supply and demand matching situation was significantly improved during the study period. In 2018, the area that could fully meet the water service supply and demand was increased by 24.9% compared with that in 2010. (3) The interaction between land use types and other influencing factors was the most obvious. In different regions, the explanatory ability of each factor was significantly different. Land use types had the strongest explanatory power for ESDR spatial differentiation in the middle and lower reaches of arid regions with flat topography. However, in the upper reaches of the high and cold semi-arid and semi-humid regions with large surface fluctuations, the explanatory ability of annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration was constantly enhanced, which became the key driving factor.