基于协整分析的外商直接投资就业效应

采用1983—2011年的时间序列，运用长期协整模型、误差修正模型和Granger因果检验，实证分析我国外商直接投资对国内就业的影响。结果表明：外商直接投资与就业之间存在长期正向的协整关系，外商直接投资有着正的就业效应，其就业弹性系数约为0．08；但是短期内，外商直接投资对国内就业具有微弱的挤出效应，外商直接投资不是国内就业的Granger因。研究结果的政策含义在于，可通过对外商直接投资的适当调控来缓解国内就业压力。促进就业。

Effects of Foreign Direct Investment on Employment Co-integration Analysis in China

Based on co-integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test, the empirical study on the effect of foreign direct investment on the employment in China during 1983-2011 has been conducted. The results show that there exists a long-term co-integration relationship between foreign direct investment and employment. Foreign direct investment is significantly positively related to domestic employment, and the employment elasticity coefficient is about 0.08. But our evidence shows that foreign direct investment on domestic employment has weak crowding-out effect in the short run, and it is not Granger cause of domestic employment. The policy implication is that domestic employment could be effectively adjusted by appropriate regulation of foreign direct investment.