世界主要国家气候谈判立场演变历程及未来减排目标分析

在以时间顺序梳理世界主要国家气候谈判立场演变历程的基础上，研究了主要国家在《京都议定书》中减排目标的执行情况，并对这些国家至2025、2030年的中长期减排目标进行了评估。研究发现，美国、加拿大、澳大利亚对待气候变化问题的积极性均与执政者相关，而从当前3个国家执政党看，均表现出不积极减排的立场，至2030年，美国、加拿大、澳大利亚的温室气体排放量比1990年水平下降均低于20%，远低于欧盟至2030年比1990年减排40%的水平。基础四国在国际减排谈判中由最初的反对者逐渐转变为积极参与者，其中，中国不仅提出了国内2030年左右碳排放达峰的减排目标，而且积极提供资金用于其他发展中国家的减排；南非的长期碳排放将趋于稳定，但在2025年之后有反弹的可能；巴西得益于毁林减少在气候谈判中表现积极，至2030年排放量下降显著；而印度至2030年排放路径保持上升趋势。

The Analysis of the Evolution of Climate Negotiating Positions in Chronology and Future Emission Targets in Major Countries

On the basis of analyzing the evolution of major countries’ climate negotiating positions in chronology, the implementation of major countries’ emission reduction targets promised in the Kyoto Protocol and the long-term emission reduction targets by 2025 or 2030 are assessed. The results show that the enthusiasm to address climate change issues in the U.S., Canada, Australia, which are members of the Umbrella Group, is relevant to the political Party in power. Considering current ruling Parties of these three countries, they have shown negative positions to reduce emissions. The emission reduction rate in U.S., Canada, and Australia by 2030 would be less than 20% compared to 1990 level, which is much lower than the 40% reduction rate of the European Union by 2030. BASIC countries gradually transformed into active participants from initial opponents in international negotiations. China not only commits to achieve the peaking of CO₂ emissions around 2030, but also announces to provide finance for mitigations in other developing countries. The emission in South Africa will keep stable by 2025, but may rise after 2025. Brazil is active and ambitious in climate negotiation due to the reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, showing a significant decline in emissions by 2030. However, the emission in India will still keep increasing by 2030.