Chronic renal failure in non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. A population-based study in Rochester, Minnesota

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To identify the incidence of clinically defined chronic renal failure by clinical type of diabetes in a community diabetic incidence cohort, and to evaluate the relation between persistent proteinuria and chronic renal failure in non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. DESIGN: Retrospective incidence cohort study. SETTING: Population-based in Rochester, Minnesota. PATIENTS: Residents of Rochester, Minnesota, with diabetes initially diagnosed between 1945 and 1979 who had follow-up to 1984 for clinically defined chronic renal failure. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Among 1832 persons with non-insulin-dependent diabetes who were initially free of chronic renal failure, 25 developed chronic renal failure (incidence, 133 per 100,000 person-years: CI, 86 to 196). The subsequent incidence of chronic renal failure among 136 insulin-dependent diabetic Rochester residents, three of whom developed chronic renal failure, was 170 per 100,000 person-years (CI, 35 to 497). After adjusting for potential confounding factors, we found that the risk for chronic renal failure associated with the presence of persistent proteinuria at the time of the diagnosis of non-insulin-dependent diabetes was increased 12-fold (hazard ratio, 12.1; CI, 4.3 to 34.0). When persistent proteinuria developed after the diagnosis of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, the cumulative risk for chronic renal failure 10 years after the diagnosis of persistent proteinuria was 11%. CONCLUSIONS: These population-based data suggest that most cases of chronic renal failure in diabetes occur in persons with non-insulin-dependent diabetes. These data also identify the increased risk for chronic renal failure among persons with non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus who have persistent proteinuria present at or developing after the diagnosis of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, such data may be useful for directing interventions to prevent or delay the development of chronic renal failure.