中国天然气市场面临的一次洗牌

我国天然气市场表现为：市场的开发培育加快并向国际成熟市场方向有序迈进,消费量快速增长,市场开发与管道建设交互促进,跨地区天然气管道销售量增长更快,形成了比较集中的几大天然气消费区域跨省管道,下游用户以民用、工业和发电为主,气田周边用气价格偏低并以化工项目为主;中国石油以奉献能源、创造和谐为宗旨,加强战略和供应保障研究部署,加大勘探生产力度,产量连年净增100亿立方米,积极引进境外清洁资源,努力保障国家能源供应安全;目前天然气的短期供需不平衡很大程度上源自天然气价格与替代能源差异很大,反映天然气实际价格与价值背离;利用方向处于引导阶段,消费结构中城市燃气占有较大比例,北方冬季高峰取暖用气调峰压力很大,用户自己的调峰手段薄弱。截至2005年底,全国天然气管道总长达2.8×10⁴km,管径在426 mm以上的输气管道76条,总长1.8412×10⁴km。对中国天然气未来市场发展的分析结果表明：①科学与和谐发展是天然气需求继续快速增长的助推力;②资源供应趋于多源化,在一定时间内小于需求;③引进国际市场化价格将推进我国天然气价格机制改革并推动其价格与替代资源挂钩;④利用政策和价格机制将对用户结构产生调整作用,向城市用户和高价值的工业用户集中;⑤行业格局短期内不会发生大的改变;⑥对长江三角洲、珠江三角洲和环渤海地区局部市场高价值客户的竞争逐步加剧;⑦中长期天然气行业逐步市场化。进而指出了天然气市场发展不可忽视的因素：进口天然气价格没有与替代能源挂钩;天然气价格机制没有到位是与国际成熟市场的最大差异;天然气发电利用政策滞后;未来天然气利用增长最快区域在我国东部。

A SHUFFLE UP AGAINST BY NATURAL GAS MARKET IN CHINA

This paper analyzed the status quo of supply demand in natural gas market in China from various aspects as follows: Natural gas trading is growing rapidly and smoothly on the way of the global market. With natural gas on the increase, gas market and pipeline construction accelerate each other, and so several long distance pipelines have been constructed providing the downstream customers for their domestic uses, many industries, or power generation, while at those circumjacent areas of oil and gas fields, newly added customers bought huge volume gases for chemical projects. PetroChina, insisting on the concept of "to bring energy and harmony in our lives" with her energy strategy and services for China, expands her exploration and production of natural gas with net increase value of production 10 tcm per year, and keeps trying all means to import more clean energy sources to secure national energy supply. The imbalance of supply demand at present is due to the low price of natural gas to large extent, which can not reflect its actual price at all. City gas accounts for significantly large proportion of gas consumption, especially in winters for those customers in North China, who can do nothing helpful for their great demand at that time. By the end of 2005, the total length of gas pipelines in China had been up to 28 000 km, 18 412 km of which were 76 gas pipelines with the diameter of 426 mm. On the other hand, through analysis this paper showed that (1)great demand for gas is on the increase being stimulated by the demand for harmony of society; (2)multiple sourced gas supply can not meet the increasing demand within a certain time; (3)global gas pricing system will be introduced to help reform Chinese gas pricing to meet the pricing way of the alternative energy; (4)customers structure will be adjusted by use of policies and gas pricing and then more gases will be sold to those high value industries and city residents. (5)gas industry structure will be kept in stable state within a short period; (6)the competition among high value customers in some regional markets like the Yangtze Delta, Zhujiang Delta, and Bohai rim Areas will become more intense than ever before; (7)gas industry will have to face up with the market in the middle and long term. Finally this paper suggested a few factors should never be ignored in the development of natural gas market, i. e., the imported gas price holding high all the time; the incomplete gas pricing system distant away from the global market; the policy on gas powered electricity not issued officially; natural gas as an alternative energy of oil unsettled; East China to be the dense area for gas demand.