冰雹天气的短时监测预报及消雹作业评估

本文研制的冰雹短时监测预报方法综合利用了T-lnP、天气图和雷达回波等资料,它把本地的降雹机制转化成对流的发生、发展、触发三指数,作为一级预报;通过计算T-lnP图上有关冰雹的层结指数,判断出冰雹强度,作为二级预报;利用雷达回波指标作为三级预报,以实现冰雹灾害天气的定时、定点、定量预报.同时对1996～2002年本地开展的人工消雹情况进行了效益评估.

Short-Term Forecast of Hail and Evaluation of Hail Elimination Operation

The method of short-term forecast of hail is worked out in paper by use of the data of temperature and logarithmic pressure chart, synoptic chart and radar echo. It transforms the native hail's mechanism into exponentials ad convective befell, progress and spring. They are used for the first step forecast. By calculating the layer exponent of hail on the chart of temperature and logarithmic pressure, hail intensity is estimated as the second level forecast. The radar echo is used for the third step forecast to predict the time, location and magnitude of hail. In addition, the beneficial evaluation of artificial hail elimination in this region in the period from 1996 to 2002 is made.