| ARIMA模型预测上海市手足口病发病趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 潘浩,郑杨,吴寰宇,胡家瑜,陶芳芳,郑雅旭,李崇山,孙晓冬.ARIMA模型预测上海市手足口病发病趋势[J].预防医学情报杂志,2011(6):408-411. |
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| 作者姓名： | 潘浩 郑杨 吴寰宇 胡家瑜 陶芳芳 郑雅旭 李崇山 孙晓冬 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海市疾病预防控制中心; |
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| 基金项目： | 上海市卫生局科研课题面上项目(研2009190) |
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| 摘 要： | 目的采用ARIMA模型建立上海市手足口病发病预测模型。方法应用SPSS18.0软件对上海市2005-01/2010-06手足口病月发病率进行ARIMA模型建模拟合,并与实际发病率进行比较。结果 ARIMA（1,0,0）（0,1,0）12模型能很好地拟合既往时间段的发病序列,对2010-01/06的预测值符合上海市该病的发病率变动趋势。2011和2012年上海市手预测足口病的年发病率分别为235.32/10万和294.59/10万。结论 ARIMA模型能够较好模拟上海市手足口病在时间序列上的变动趋势,并对未来2年该病发病情况进行预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 手足口病 ARIMA模型 预测 时间序列分析 |
ARIMA Model on Prediction of Hand-foot-mouth Disease Incidence in Shanghai |
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| PAN Hao,ZHENG Yang,WU Huan-yu,et al Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control , Prevention,Shanghai,China..ARIMA Model on Prediction of Hand-foot-mouth Disease Incidence in Shanghai[J].Journal of Preventive Medicine Information,2011(6):408-411. |
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| Authors: | PAN Hao ZHENG Yang WU Huan-yu Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control Prevention Shanghai China |
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| Affiliation: | PAN Hao,ZHENG Yang,WU Huan-yu,et al Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai,200336,China. |
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| Abstract: | Objective To establish a model to predict the incidence rate of hand-foot-mouth disease in Shanghai by appling auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA).Methods The monthly hand-foot-mouth incidence rates from January to June 2010 in Shanghai were ARIMA modeling established by using SPSS 18.0,and compared with the actual incidence rates.Results ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0)12 fitted very well with the incidence series in the past period of time.The predicted incidence rates from January to June 2010 in the mod... |
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| Keywords: | hand-foot-mouth disease ARIMA model prediction time series analysis |
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