旅游空间相互作用的引力模型及其应用

客源地与目的地之间的旅游空间相互作用是必然而持久地,这深刻地影响着旅游者行为和旅游业进步,需要发展适宜的引力模型对其进行刻画和量度.长期以来,旅游引力模型在对空间阻尼的处理上类比牛顿型的幂函数衰减模式,难以克服一些固有缺陷,因此重新回到威尔逊型的指数函数衰减模式就成为一种可能选择.本文即是基于威尔逊形式,将目的地“吸引力”、客源地“出游力”和两地间的“空间阻尼”作为3 个基本解释变量类型,构建了一个基础的旅游引力模型,并重点在参数估计和模型应用上进行了初步探索.由于难以从整体上对模型的两个核心参数进行回归估计,本文首先从局部对收入弹性系数α进行回归估计,然后通过“口粒子模式法”和“出游量积分法”的引入和交互验证来确定空间阻尼系数β的合理取值.研究表明,就全国平均而言,在21 世纪初收入弹性系数可取0.64,而空间阻尼系数可取0.00322,且在空间阻尼影响下,中国大陆居民国内旅游的理论出游半径均值约为300 km.最后,本文从目的地供给视角计算了中国大陆分省区的旅游吸引力,从客源地需求视角计算了成都市到访游客的分省预期市场份额,这两个案例研究在取得一些有益发现的同时也表明威尔逊型旅游引力模型具有积极的应用潜力,值得进一步探索.

Gravity Model for Tourism Spatial Interaction:Basic Form, Parameter Estimation, and Applications

Spatial interaction between tourist origin and destination is a key factor affecting tourist behavior and tourism industry.Usually,such a spatial interaction was described by gravity models.However,tourism gravity models used to adopt power deterrence function to describe the spatial friction effect,which is an analogy with Newton’s gravity model,are hard to overcome some inherent defects.Therefore,Wilson’s model with exponential deterrence function becomes a possible alternative.Based on Wilson’s model,a basic form of tourism gravity model is presented with three main explanatory variables:attractiveness of tourist destination,emissiveness of tourist origin,and spatial damping between the destination and origin. Two coefficients,α(income elasticity) and β(spatial damping) in this model are also need to be evaluated.We used the traditional regression method to estimate the value ofα.As toβ,two new methods,"population particle pattern method"and"integral method on tourist amount"are used to estimate it.The results show that:1) α=0.64 and β=0.00322 are at the national average level in the 2000s;2) αbecomes larger as the field-pixel becomes smaller.For provincial,municipal,county,and township levels,the values ofβare 0.00044,0.0014,0.0044 and 0.014,respectively;3) affected by spatial damping,the average travel radius of domestic residents is about 300 km. By the application of this model,attractiveness of each province of China and provincial tourist market shares of Chengdu city are calculated.The results show that:1) from 2004 to 2008,the average tourism attraction of Sichuan,Liaoning and Yunnan rank the top three,while Ningxia,Qinghai and Inner Mongolia rank the bottom three;2) from 1999 to 2008,in terms of tourism attraction at provincial level,Xizang has the biggest increase in the ranking,while Shanghai has the greatest decline in the ranking.3) The results of theoretical calculation on Chengdu city are in accordance with empirical experiences and sampling data,which demonstrates the applicable potential of the tourism gravity model proposed in this paper.