地缘政治演变驱动力变化与地缘政治学研究新趋势

随着科技进步和经济、社会的发展,影响地缘政治格局演变的驱动力因子发生了显著变化。首先,技术的进步、高速运输工具的诞生,传统的地理空间关系和地域联系都发生了很大的变化,空间距离所产生的效应在降低;其次,地缘政治博弈主体间的力量对比发生变化,借助互联网,原来相对弱势的个人和非政府组织的地位和作用在上升;第三,在全球化的背景下,经济利益在国家战略中的地位上升,地缘政治的冲突逻辑,正逐渐让位于地缘经济的竞争逻辑;第四,与气候变化相关联的新因素对地缘政治格局的影响越来越显著,碳排放权等相对虚化的权利发展成为新的地缘政治争夺对象。在上述驱动力的作用下,地缘政治学发展和研究出现了新的趋势：① 更加关注全球问题和从全人类视角研究问题,传统的主权国家概念受到严重挑战;② 从对土地、能源矿产和海上战略通道等实体资源争夺,向信息权、碳排放权等相对虚拟的资源转变;③ 重视新的能源类型和新的地域空间对地缘政治格局的影响;④ 通过对传统地缘政治学的批判,在研究内容上向所谓的“低政治”问题拓展,地缘政治与地缘经济、地缘文化等交叉和融合成为趋势;⑤ 地缘政治学研究方法和手段更加多元;⑥ 中国实力的快速增长成为改变世界地缘政治格局的重要力量,也为地缘政治研究带来机遇。

Changes in driving forces of geopolitical evolution and the new trends in geopolitics studies

With the progress of science and technology and the development of economy and society, the driving factors affecting the evolution of geopolitical situation have changed significantly. Firstly, advances in information technology and the birth of high-speed transportation means have changed traditional geographical relations and regional connection. Distance influence is less than before. Secondly, individuals, non-governmental organizations and other relatively weak geopolitical gamers' play a more important role by means of the information technology and the Internet. Thirdly, on the background of economic globalization, the economic interests of the status has a higher position in national strategies, geopolitical conflict logic is being replaced with geo-economic competition logic; Fourthly, new factors, such as climate change, new energy and low-carbon economy, impact on geopolitical situation are increasing significantly; Fifthly, carbon emission rights and human rights, so called virtual resources, have become a new geopolitical competitive object. Geopolitical studies have expanded to social, cultural, emotional and gender issues. Under the action of the driving forces, some new trends of geopolitical development and research emerged: (1) Geopolitical studies pay more attention to global issues and research perspective is shifting from the view of nation to the view of humanity. The traditional concept of state sovereignty is seriously being challenged. (2) Competition objects expand from physical resources of land, energy, mineral resources and offshore strategic channels to the information rights, carbon emission rights and other relative virtual resources. (3) Renewable and unconventional energy, like liquid bio-fuels and shale gas will play a very important role in future geopolitical evolution, and the Arctic is the new focus of geopolitical competition. (4) By criticizing traditional geopolitics, the research content expands to the so-called "low politics" issues, such as culture, gender and emotion. Integration of geopolitics and geo-economy, geo-culture is becoming a trend. (5) Research methods of geopolitics are from qualitative analysis, semi- quantitative model to quantitative model. (6) With the growth of political and military power, China has become an important force to change the global geopolitical pattern, which brings opportunities for the geopolitical study, especially for the Chinese studies.