近46a黑龙江水稻障碍型冷害及其与气候生产力的关系

利用黑龙江省稻作区46 a（1961—2006年）每年7—8月逐日平均气温、5—9月逐旬平均气温、降水量资料,采用气候统计方法分析了自然低温下障碍型冷害发生的规律和时空变化特征,基于logistic曲线方程模拟粳稻气候生产力,建立起5个区域粳稻气候生产力与障碍型冷害期间平均温度和冷害持续时间的关系模型。结果表明,近46 a间,20世纪70年代是障碍型冷害高发期,20世纪80年代是障碍型冷害发生频率由多至少的转折期,21世纪初为低发期。黑龙江省北部稻作区、东部稻作区和中部稻作区为障碍型冷害重发区,南部稻作区为中等发生区,西部稻作区为轻发区。5个区域障碍型冷害发生期间的平均温度与粳稻气候生产力相关性均不显著,而冷害持续时间对粳稻气候生产力影响显著,并具有明显的地域差异,北部、东部和南部极显著（通过0.01信度的显著性检验）,冷害持续时间每延长1 d,北部、东部和南部粳稻气候生产力分别下降119.89 kg/hm^2、213.60 kg/hm^2、133.84 kg/hm^2,西部和中部影响不显著。

Sterile-type Cool Injury on Rice and Its Relationship with Climate Productivity in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2006

With the average daily temperature from July to August,the ten-day average temperature and precipitation from May to September of rice planting area in Heilongjiang Province during 1961 to 2006,by using the method of climatic statistics based on which the temporal and spatial characteristics of sterile-type cool injuries are analyzed under natural low temperature condition.This paper simulated Japonica Rice climate productivity and established 5 models concerning the relationship between Japonica Rice climate productivity and the average temperature and duration of low temperature in sterile-type cool injuries by using Logistic Curve Equation and linear regression in 5 regions.The results show that in recent 46 years,sterile-type cool injury occurred most frequently in the 1970s and its occurrence gradually reduced in the 1980s and came to a low point at the beginning of the 21st century.As for regional distribution,frequency of sterile-type cool injury is high in the north,east and central areas while its frequency is moderate in the south area and lowest in the west area.Further investigations show that Japonica Rice climate productivity is not significantly correlated to the average temperature.However,it is closely correlated to the duration of low temperature in sterile-type cool injury and presents obvious geographical differences：the relationship between Japonica Rice climate productivity and the duration of low temperature is very significant in the north,east and south areas（P0.01） but not that significant in the west and central regions.If the sterile-type cool injury prolongs for 1 day,Japonica Rice climate productivity will reduce 119.89 kg/hm^2,213.60 kg/hm^2 and 133.84 kg/hm^2 in the north,east and south areas respectively.