On the probability distribution of economic growth

Three important and significantly heteroscedastic gross domestic product series are studied. Omnipresent heteroscedasticity is removed and the distributions of the series are then compared to normal, normal mixture and normal–asymmetric Laplace (NAL) distributions. NAL represents a skewed and leptokurtic distribution, which is in line with the Aghion and Howitt 1 Aghion, P. and Howitt, P. 1992. A model of growth through creative destruction. Econometrica, 60: 323–351. Crossref], Web of Science ®] Google Scholar]] model for economic growth, based on Schumpeter's idea of creative destruction. Statistical properties of the NAL distributions are provided and it is shown that NAL fits the data better than the alternatives.