基于运营组织的城市群轨道客流预测法

为了提高城市群轨道交通客流预测“四阶段法”的精度,在分析城市群轨道交通客流特点的基础上,将轨道交通客流预测方法分为独立线网分配预测法和综合线网分配预测法,分析了两种预测方法的预测模式及优缺点,对基于方式划分-交通分配的联合分配的综合线网分配预测法进行改进研究,提出了基于运营组织的城市群轨道客流预测方法,阐述了预测过程及其在TransCAD软件中的具体实现方法。改进方法以城市和城际公共交通网络组成交通分配的综合基础网络,从运营组织层面考虑公共交通方式之间的合作与竞争,得到竞争后稳态的轨道交通客流,预测结果更加合理,最适合城市群的轨道交通和快速公交系统(BRT)的客流预测。

A Forecasting Method of Passenger Flow in Urban Agglomeration on the Basis of Operation Organization

In view of the importance of rail transit passenger flow forecasting,in order to improve the precision of "the four stage methods" of urban agglomeration transit passenger flow,this paper first analyzed the characteristics of the urban agglomeration transit passenger flow,then divided that into two types: independent network assignment method and comprehensive network assignment method.It also analyzed the merits and the shortcomings of the two methods,and made some improvements of the comprehensive network assignment method which based on the association of traffic mode split and traffic assignment,meanwhile it advanced a forecasting method of passenger flow on the basis of operation organization and also introduced the practice in TransCAD.This method use the city and intercity public traffic network as the base assignment network,it considered the cooperation and competition relationship of public transportation modes based on operation organization,then got the steady rail transit passenger flow.The result is more reasonable and it is the only method for passenger flow forecasting of rail transit.