松花江干流洪水预测和影响评估及对策建议

根据历史数据,分析了松花江干流(哈尔滨段)水位变化的历史规律和典型洪水年洪水的成因,计算和分析了其与松花江、嫩江、二松流域面雨量的相关性,统计和分析了其与拉尼娜、厄尔尼诺、太阳黑子等的关系.利用方差周期和均生函数方法,建立了2004-2013年拉尼娜、厄尔尼诺、太阳黑子及松花江、嫩江、二松流域面雨量的预测方法,并进行了预测,建立了松花江干流(哈尔滨段)最高水位趋势的综合预测方法,得出了2004-2013年的预测值.提出了相应治理的对策建议.

Prediction,assessment and countermeasures against flood in master stream of Songhua River

According to the historical data,the variation law of water level in the master stream of Songhua River(the section in Harbin)and the cause of typical flood were explained.Correlation between them and the rainfall in basins of Songhua River,Nenjiang River and the 2nd Songhua River was analyzed. Relation of them with La Nina,EI Nino and sunspot et al was established. Utilizing the cycle method of variance and mean generation function, the prediction method of La Nina,EI Nino,sunspot and the rainfall in Songhua River,Nenjiang River,the 2nd Songhua River and their predicted values for 2004-2013 were presented. The synthetical prediction method of the highest water level in master stream of Songhua River were set up,and the predicated values for 2004-2013 were obtained. The countermeasure and suggestion on control of the flood were put forward.