基于GIS的兴文县喀斯特山区土地人口承载力研究

我国地少人多,耕地后备资源不足,特别是生态环境脆弱的喀斯特山区尤为突出。科学计算该区域土地生产潜力,努力寻求土地承载人口的最佳容量已引起广泛关注。本文以兴文县石海镇为例,针对喀斯特山区地形特点,提取适宜耕地的数量及其空间分布;融合研究区气象、土壤特点,利用潜力递减法、改进的农业生态区域模型(AEZ)进行基于行政村尺度的粮食生产潜力分析,并对比研究土地资源人口承载量,提供比较客观的研究区人口承载量。结果表明:喀斯特山区人口承载量低,特别是峰丛峰林所在的个别行政村,从粮食安全和耕地保护的角度看,移民在所难免,政府应作好相应的规划和应对准备。

Carrying Capacity of Land in Karst Terrain,Xingwen Country Based on GIS

Our country is characterized by a large population with relatively arable land,especially in karst terrain.Exemplified by Shihai Township,Xingwen County,Sichuan,this paper deals with carrying capacity of land in karst terrain.The results indicate that lower population-carrying capacity of land in the karst terrain,especially in peak cluster.From the angle of grain security and farmland protection,immigrating will be unavoidable,so the government should do some relevant plans and corresponding preparations.