| 基于投影寻踪聚类思想的区域旱灾综合风险动态评估模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 李磊,席占生,朱永楠,金菊良,梁忠民.基于投影寻踪聚类思想的区域旱灾综合风险动态评估模型[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(9):1-5. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李磊 席占生 朱永楠 金菊良 梁忠民 |
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| 作者单位： | 国核电力规划设计研究院, 北京 100095;国核电力规划设计研究院, 北京 100095;河海大学 水文水资源学院, 江苏 南京 210098;合肥工业大学 土木与水利工程学院, 安徽 合肥 230009;河海大学 水文水资源学院, 江苏 南京 210098 |
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| 基金项目： | 水利部重大基建前期基金资助项目；水利部公益性行业科研专项经费基金资助项目（201001043)；国家自然科学基金资助项目（51079037) |
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| 摘 要： | 从系统理论的角度分析了区域旱灾系统的结构体系,将区域旱灾风险分为致旱因子危险性、孕灾环境不稳定性和承灾体脆弱性三个子系统,并分析了各子系统的主要因素,从而建立了区域旱灾系统综合风险评估指标体系,并根据区域旱灾综合风险评估的目的,将动态综合评估方法和区划聚类评估方法相结合,建立了基于投影寻踪聚类思想的区域旱灾综合风险动态评估模型,为区域旱灾综合风险评估提供了参考依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 区域旱灾综合风险 动态评估 风险区划 动态综合评估方法 投影寻踪聚类方法 模型 |
Regional Drought Comprehensive Risk Dynamic Evaluation Model Based on Projection Pursuit Clustering Method |
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| LI Lei,XI Zhansheng,ZHU Yongnan,JIN Juliang and LIANG Zhongmin.Regional Drought Comprehensive Risk Dynamic Evaluation Model Based on Projection Pursuit Clustering Method[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2012,30(9):1-5. |
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| Authors: | LI Lei XI Zhansheng ZHU Yongnan JIN Juliang and LIANG Zhongmin |
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| Affiliation: | State Nuclear Electric Power Planning Design & Research Institute, Beijing 100095, China;State Nuclear Electric Power Planning Design & Research Institute, Beijing 100095, China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;College of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on system theory, we analyze regional drought structural system and divide drought risk system into three subsystems, which includes hazard-formation factors, hazard-formation environments and hazard-affected bodies. After analysis of the main factors of these subsystems, we establish a regional drought comprehensive risk evaluation index system. According to the purpose of regional drought risk evaluation, regional drought comprehensive risk dynamic evaluation model based projection pursuit clustering idea is established by combining dynamic evaluation model and zoning clustering evaluation method. Thus, it provides a foundation for regional drought comprehensive risk evaluation. |
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| Keywords: | regional drought comprehensive risk dynamic evaluation risk zoning dynamic comprehensive evaluation projection pursuit clustering method model |
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