计及台风灾害全过程模拟的配电网差异化加固规划韧性提升方法

台风会对配电网系统造成严重影响，制定架空线路的防风加固规划方案至关重要。为提高配电网抵御自然灾害的韧性，提出一种计及台风灾害全过程模拟的配电网差异化加固规划韧性提升方法，通过模拟台风登陆至消亡时刻全过程实时风况信息，对各线路实施差异化加固。首先，利用狄利克雷过程混合模型(dirichlet process mixture model, DPMM)聚类算法提取典型台风登陆场景，结合风暴轨迹模型和Batts风场模型模拟实时台风移动路径和台风风场，计算配电网线路实时故障概率。然后，结合台风场景模拟结果和不同设计风速标准下的差异化的架空线路故障率，建立以多等级线路加固年投资成本、台风过境过程中失负荷成本、停电损失和维修成本最小为目标的双层随机规划模型，并利用Benders分解算法进行求解。最后，以改进IEEE33节点系统为例，对所提方法有效性进行了验证。

Differentiated reinforcement planning method for a distribution network considering simulation of the whole process of typhoon disasters

Typhoons can have a serious impact on a distribution network, so it is very important to formulate the windproof reinforcement planning scheme of overhead lines. To improve the resilience to natural disasters, a method for improving distribution network planning based on the whole process simulation of typhoon disasters is proposed. By simulating the real-time wind condition of the whole process from typhoon landing to typhoon extinction, differentiated reinforcement is implemented for each line. First, the Dirichlet process mixture model (DPMM) clustering algorithm is used to extract typical typhoon landing scenarios, and the storm track model and Batts wind field model are combined to simulate the typhoon moving path and wind field, and the real-time fault probability of distribution network lines is calculated. Secondly, combined with the typhoon simulation results and the differential overhead line failure rate in different wind speed standards, a double-layer stochastic programming model is established with the objective of minimizing the annual investment cost of multi-level line reinforcement, the cost of loss of load during typhoon transit, the loss of power outage and maintenance cost. It is analyzed using Benders decomposition algorithm. Finally, taking the improved IEEE33 node system as an example, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified.