计及信息失效影响的主动配电系统可靠性建模与评估

随着主动配电信息物理系统复杂程度的增加，可靠性计算效率已成为制约其实用化的关键因素，因此亟需一种快速评估主动配电信息物理系统可靠性的方法。在考虑信息传输性能的基础上，提出了采用频域/时域转换的信息链路有效性快速求解方法；为了量化信息失效对配电自愈过程的间接影响，建立了考虑信息失效的配电网开关拒动概率模型；同时考虑配电网多开关自愈动作，结合网络等值法与最小路法，改进了网络等值向上等效过程中的平均停运时间计算方法。基于此计算了配电网各类用户可靠性，最后建立了测试系统验证了所提方法的有效性，探讨了信息物理元件依赖度匹配程度对配电网可靠性的影响，分析了信息系统故障对计划孤岛、负荷转供的影响。

Reliability Modeling and Evaluation of Active Distribution System Considering Effect of Cyber Invalidity

With the increase of the complexity of cyber-physical system of the active distribution network, the evaluation efficiency of reliability has become the key factor which restricts its practical application, so a rapid assessment method of cyber-physical system is urgently needed. Based on the consideration of the cyber transmission performance, a new method is proposed for the rapid evaluation of cyber link validity based on frequency/time domain transformation, which provides a new way for quantizing the cyber transmission performance. Then, in order to quantify the indirect interdependencies of cyber failure on the self-healing of distribution network, the probability model for switch failure is established considering the cyber failure. Meanwhile, considering the multi-switch self-healing action of distribution network and combining the equivalent method and the minimal path method, an innovative calculation method is put forward for the average outage time in the upward equivalent process of network equivalence. Based on this, the reliability of various users in distribution network is calculated. Finally, a test system is established to verify the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method. The influence of the matching degree of cyber and physical elements on the reliability is discussed and the influence of cyber fault on the planned island and load transfer is analyzed.