中国道路交通二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究

为研究我国道路交通行业CO₂排放未来控制路径，结合未来经济社会和货物运输发展状况、运输结构、能源结构和能效结构变化，采用行驶里程法分析了我国道路交通CO₂排放现状、未来变化趋势及主要驱动因素. 结果表明:①采用行驶里程法计算道路交通行业CO₂排放量相对合理，2019年全国汽车CO₂排放量为9.52×108 t，比油耗法所得结果高20%左右，二者存在差异的主要原因为交通油耗统计数据偏低. ②从车型看，重型货车和小型客车是汽车CO₂排放的主要来源，分别占39.7%、38.2%；从燃料种类看，汽油、柴油、其他燃料(天然气、醇类燃料等)CO₂排放量分别占42.8%、52.5%、4.7%. ③道路交通CO₂排放预计于“十五五”末达峰，峰值在12.2×108～13.9×108 t之间，达峰后有2～3年的平台期. ④推广新能源车是道路交通CO₂排放控制的主要驱动因素，其次为能效提升，运输结构调整在前期有一定的贡献，2025年上述措施对道路交通CO₂减排量占比分别为56%、34%和10%左右，2030年分别为55%、40%和5%左右. 研究显示，加大新能源汽车推广力度，持续降低新生产燃油车碳排放强度，推进运输结构调整，可有效降低道路交通CO₂排放. 

Peak Pathway of China's Road Traffic Carbon Emissions

In order to study the future control path of CO₂ emissions from road transportation, the vehicle mileage method is used to analyze the current situation, future change trend and main driving factors of CO₂ emissions from vehicles in China, combined with the future development of economy, society and cargo transportation, the changes of transportation structure, energy structure and energy efficiency structure. The results show that: (1) It is reasonable to use the vehicle mileage method to calculate vehicle CO₂ emissions. In 2019, the national motor vehicle CO₂ emissions calculated by the vehicle mileage method are 9.52×108 t, which is 20% higher than that calculated by the fuel consumption method. The main reason for the difference between the two methods is the low traffic fuel consumption statistics. (2) In terms of vehicle types, heavy trucks and light cars are the main sources of CO₂ emissions, accounting for 39.7% and 38.2%, respectively. In terms of fuel types, vehicles using gasoline, diesel and other fuels (natural gas, alcohol fuels, etc.) account for 42.8%, 52.5% and 4.7% CO₂ emissions, respectively. (3) Motor vehicle CO₂ emissions will reach a peak of 12.2×108-13.9×108 t at the end of the ‘15th Five-Year Plan’, and there will be a plateau period of 2-3 years after reaching the peak. (4) The introduction of new energy vehicles is the main driving factor for vehicle CO₂ emission control, followed by the improvement of energy efficiency, and the adjustment of transportation structure has made a certain contribution in the early stage. The above measures will account for about 56%, 34% and 10% of vehicle CO₂ emission reduction in 2025 and about 55%, 40% and 5% in 2030. According to this research, increasing the promotion of new energy vehicles, continuously reducing the carbon emission intensity of newly produced internal combustion engine vehicles, and promoting the adjustment of transportation structure can effectively reduce vehicle CO₂ emissions.