用组合预测模型对我国能源需求量的研究

随着中国经济的快速发展，能源消费不断提高。利用能源消费量的历吏数据，建立了我国能源消费系统的ARMA模型和灰色预测模型的组合模型。通过组合模型和ARMA模型、灰色预测模型的具体比较分析，证明组合模型更为易行、有效，可以作为我国及地区未来能源消费量预测的有效工具。

Research on China's energy demand by combination forecasting model

As rapid development of chinese economy ,energy consumption has been increasing day by day.By referring to historical data,we establish integrated model of chinese energy consumption system,which functions by the combination of ARMA model and gray forecasting model. Through concrete comparison of integrated model,ARMA model and gray forecasting model,the integrated model has been proven to be easier and more effective.Based on the analysis,we propose integrated model as an effective tool to predict chinese future energy consumption.