基于CLUE-S模型和生态安全格局的石羊河流域土地利用优化配置

以典型干旱内陆河流域石羊河为例，将GIS技术、最小累积阻力（minimum cumulative resistance，MCR）模型和CLUE-S（conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent）模型应用到该流域土地利用优化配置研究中。通过景观安全格局理论构建土地利用生态安全格局，基于土地利用空间分布和驱动因子的定量关系，提出一种基于生态安全格局的土地利用情景模拟方法，借助1986年、2000年和2014年3期土地利用数据对石羊河流域生态安全格局情景、耕地保护情景和自然发展情景3种模式下2030年的土地利用结构和布局进行了优化配置，并对优化配置结果进行比较分析。结果表明，在生态安全情景下耕地有所减少，林地、草地和水域有较明显增加；耕地保护情景以土地开发和整治及宅基地还耕为主要目标，科学有效控制了建设用地规模，大力开发未利用地潜力；自然发展情景综合考虑了目前发展情况和宏观政策指导下各土地利用类型的数量及空间结构发展情况。综合考虑石羊河流域社会经济、生态及耕地保护等多方面的因素，研究结果认为耕地保护情景更为合理，其它两种情景可为耕地保护情景进行补充和局部修正。该结果可为石羊河流域土地利用总体规划和生态保护提供参考。

Land Use Optimization Based on CLUE-S Model and Ecological Security Scenario in Shiyang River Basin

In this paper, GIS spatial analysis technologies, the minimum cumulative resistance model and CLUE-S model were applied to optimize the land use structure and the allocation in the Shiyang River Basin. Ecological security patterns were constructed to maintain the basic ecosystem services of Shiyang River Basin based on the theory of landscape security patterns and land use data collected in 1986, 2000, and 2014. Moreover, we set the land use change and spatial optimization allocation of the basin for the year 2030 under three development modes by MCR model and CLUE-S model, and then predicted the land use distribution under an ecological security pattern scenario, a farmland protection scenario, and a free development scenario. The results showed that the farmland decreased but woodland, grassland, and water body increased under an ecological security pattern scenario. Land use exploitation and renovation and homestead consolidation were the main objectives. The urban and residential landuse were controlled scientifically and effectively under a farmland protection scenario. In a free development scenario, the current free development situation and the government macro policy guidance were comprehensively considered and the quantity and spatial development were also taken into consideration. Comprehensive consideration of sustainable development in Shiyang river basin from the perspective of social, economic, ecological development, and farmland protection suggests that the free development scenario is relatively reasonable, and the other two scenarios can be a supplement for regional land optimal allocation.