基于灰色关联-网络层次分析模型的水资源安全综合评价

水资源安全系统是由自然、社会等因子组成的复杂系统,具有复杂和模糊的特征。综合考虑供水安全、社会安全、经济安全、生态环境安全4个方面的水资源安全问题,基于网络层次分析法(ANP),对水资源安全评价的主要控制因素进行网络层次划分和权重计算,并结合灰色关联分析法(GRA)建立了水资源安全综合评价模型。应用此评价模型对贵州省2008-2015年的水资源安全状态进行等级评价。结果表明:2008-2015年间贵州省水资源安全总体处于相对稳定状态,属较安全状态和临界安全状态范围,且安全状态等级呈现稳步上升的趋势。该评价结果与实际情况相符,说明采用GRA-ANP模型的水资源安全综合评价方法是合理有效的,该评价方法及结果可为区域水资源安全评价以及水资源开发利用提供借鉴和参考。

Comprehensive evaluation of water resources security based on GRA-ANP model

Water resources security is a complex system composing of natural and social factors,with complex and fuzzy features.In this paper,a network hierarchy division and a weight calculation have been proposed for the main control factors of the water resource safety assessment on the basis of Analytic Network Process (ANP),comprehensively considering four aspects of water resource security,namely,water supply security,social security,economic security,and ecological environment security.In addition,a comprehensive evaluation model of water resources security was established by combining Grey Relation Analysis (GRA).The water resource security of Guizhou province from 2008 to 2015 was then evaluated with this model.The results showed that its security was overall in a relatively stable state,which was between safer and near safe condition,and the safety grade steadily ws on the rising.This result was coincided with the reality,which indicated that the comprehensive evaluation model with the applications of GRA-ANP was reasonable and effective.The evaluation method and results thus can provide a reference for regional assessment of water resources security and the development and utilization of water resources.