复杂电网连锁故障预测

分析近年来发生的连锁故障案例得出:故障过程中常伴随母线低电压和线路过载问题,且它们对事故发展起到关键的推动作用。针对这一特性,提出一种连锁故障预测方法,在事故发生后计算系统潮流以判断节点电压波动及线路的过负荷情况并依判据切除相应元件,预测出连锁故障的序列事件,为事故对策做好准备,从而有利于减小大停电发生事件概率,缩小事故影响范围。

Cascading Contingency Forecasting of Complex Power System

Based on the analysis of cascading failures occurred these years,the paper concluded that cascading failure often accompanied by low-voltage and overload problems which play an important role in failures'development.In allusion to this characteristic,a method by which the following-up event can be forecasted was proposed.After every event,calculate power flow to estimate the voltage deviation and overloads,then remove the components according to criterions.The sequent events of initial outages were forecasted for preparing countermeasures,it worked well in reducing the probability of blackout and narrowing the scale of failure.