陆域产业结构演进对海洋环境的动态影响研究——以长江流域与东海沿岸地区为例

以往研究已经证明海洋经济发展中产生的污染对海洋环境质量的变化没有显著性影响,海洋污染物的主要来源是陆地,海洋环境与陆域经济之间存在着较为密切的关系,但关于陆域产业结构演进对海洋环境影响的研究非常少见,加深该研究对推动海洋环境改善具有重要的意义。利用VAR模型和Tapio脱钩模型,研究2001～2017年间长江流域和东海沿岸地区的产业结构高度化和产业结构合理化对东海海域的海洋环境的动态冲击,借助它们的脱钩状态证实该影响。研究结果显示:(1)陆域产业结构高度化有利于海洋环境改善,其原因包括产业间优势地位的更替和产业内部的技术创新;陆域产业结构合理化的发展存在波动性,导致它对海洋环境的影响不够显著;一部分海洋污染物可以通过海水自身的净化能力而消解,残存污染给海洋环境带来了不利影响。(2)在2002～2017年,东海的海洋环境与长江流域和东海沿岸地区的产业结构高度化、合理化分别表现为"大幅变化-稳步变化-脱钩持续"、"剧烈变化-起伏波动-脱钩持续"的脱钩变化规律,该脱钩分析结果证实了陆域产业结构演进对海洋环境的影响。

Study on the Dynamic Impact of Land Industrial Structure Evolution on Marine Environment: A Case Study of the Yangtze Basin and the East China Sea Coast

Previous studies prove that the pollution generated in the development of the marine economy has no significant impact on the changes in marine environmental quality. Marine pollution mainly originates from the land area, and there is a close relationship between the marine environment and the land economy. However, the research on the impact of the evolution of the industrial structure on the marine environment is not enough. It is of great significance to expand the research to promote the improvement of the marine environment. In this paper, the VAR Model and the Tapio Decoupling Model are used to explore the dynamic impact of the industrial structure optimization and rationalization of the Yangtze River Basin and the East China Sea coast on the marine environment of the East China Sea from 2001 to 2017, while the decoupling stages are utilized for confirming this effect. The research results are as follows: (1)The optimization of the industrial structure of the land area is conducive to the improvement of the marine environment, which is due to the replacement of the dominant position between industries and the technological innovation within the industry. The development of the rationalization of the land industrial structure is volatile, resulting in its impact on the marine environment is not significant enough. Some marine pollution can be digested by the purifying ability of seawater, but the residual pollution has adversely affected the marine environment. (2)From 2002 to 2017, the marine environment of the East China Sea and the optimization of the industrial structure of the Yangtze River Basin and the East China Sea coast have the decoupling stage of ‘significant changes-steady changes-continuous decoupling’, while the marine environment and the rationalization of the industrial structure have the decoupling stage of ‘violent changes-fluctuations-continuous decoupling’. This decoupling analysis confirms the impact of the industrial structure evolution on the marine environment.