产业发展、土地集约利用与城市土地扩张

城市土地扩张速度过快是当前中国社会需要解决的一个重要问题。利用2000～2014年中国30个省会城市的面板数据,实证检验了全国层面和区域层面下,产业发展、土地集约利用与城市土地扩张之间的关系,并重点分析了土地集约利用在其中的中介作用。研究表明:(1)就全国层面看,第三产业规模提升和产业结构升级会抑制城市土地的扩张,土地集约利用在其中发挥部分中介效应,且其对总效应的贡献率分别为10.3%和12.6%;(2)就区域层面看,第三产业规模提升和产业结构升级会通过提高土地集约利用水平对东部城市土地扩张产生间接负向影响;第二产业规模增加对中部城市土地扩张有直接的促进效果;(3)该研究揭示了不同产业发展类型对不同区域城市土地扩张的影响及其中的作用路径,并针对性的提出了一系列政策建议,这对控制我国城市土地的过度扩张具有现实的指导意义。

Industrial Development， Intensive Land Use and Urban Expansion

The rapid expansion of urban land is a serious problem that need to be solved. Using the panel data of 30 provincial capital cities in China from 2000 to 2014, this paper tested the relationship between industrial development, intensive land use and urban land expansion at the national and regional levels, and analyzed the mediating function of intensive land use. Major conclusions can be drawn as follows: 1) At the national level, the increase of the tertiary industry scale and the upgrade of industrial structure inhibit the expansion of urban land, and the intensive land use plays partial mediating effect, and its contribution to the total effect is 10.3% and 12.6% respectively. 2) At the regional level, the increase of the tertiary industry scale and the upgrade of industrial structure has an indirect negative impact on the land expansion of the eastern cities by increasing the level of intensive land use; the increase of the secondary industry size has a direct effect on the urban land expansion of the central cities. 3) This study reveals the impact of different types of industrial development on urban land expansion in different regions and its path among them, and proposes a series of policy recommendations, which has realistic guiding for controlling the too rapid expansion of urban land in China.