2006-2013年江苏省昆山市女性乳腺癌发病趋势分析

摘要:目的　探究2006-2013年昆山市女性乳腺癌发病趋势。方法　基于昆山市恶性肿瘤登记报告系统2006-2013年乳腺癌发病数，计算乳腺癌粗发病率与年龄标化发病率；使用年度变化百分比（Annual Percentage Change，APC）评价乳腺癌发病率时间变化趋势。灰色模型预测未来年份女性乳腺癌发病率。结果　江苏省昆山市2006-2013女性乳腺癌发病总例数为1165例；粗发病率由2006年30.21/10万上升到2013年的55.32/10万，上升趋势明显（APC＝6.64%，95% CI:3.26%～10.02%）。年龄标化发病率由2006年的15.97/10万上升到2013年的28.57/10万（APC＝6.18%，95% CI:2.92%～9.44%）。灰色模型预测结果显示女性乳腺癌粗发病率依旧上升，2014-2016年分别为60.81/10万、64.57/10万及68.57/10万。结论　江苏省昆山市女性乳腺癌发病率逐年上升，乳腺癌防治相关措施需进一步强化开展。

Breast cancer incidence and temporal trend among females in Kunshan,Jiangsu Province, 2006-2013

Abstract: Objective To estimate the incidence rate and temporal trend of breast cancer in Kunshan, Jiangsu Province, 2006-2013. Methods We studied breast patients diagnosed in 2006-2013 and registered in the Kunshan Cancer registry, Jiangsu Province. Age standardized rate were calculated and annual percentage change (APC) were used to examine the incidence time trend. Grey model was used to forecast the crude incidence for the future years. Results A total of 1165 cases were recorded as breast cancer during 2006 to 2013 in Kunshan City. Crude incidence was increased from 30.21/100, 000 in 2006 to 55.32/100, 000 in 2013 (APC=6.64%, 95%CI: 3.26%～10.02%), and age standardized rate by Chinese population was increased significantly from 15.97/100, 000 in 2006 to 28.57/100, 000 in 2013 (APC=6.18%, 95%CI: 2.92%～9.44%). Grey model were used and increasing trend was observed in the following years, and female breast cancer incidence in the year 2014 to 2016 were 60.81, 64.57, and 68.57 per 100000 person years, respectively. Conclusion Significant increasing in breast cancer incidence year by year were observed in Kunshan City, and more control and prevention activities should be strengthen in the population to reduce the burden of breast cancer.