山东省农业水足迹周期及趋势变化分析

农业用水状况及其周期趋势分析对合理制定农业用水分配、提高水资源利用效率有着重要的现实意义。依据水足迹理论,分别计算了山东省1978-2014年农业总水足迹及其分项,利用经验模态分解(EMD)分别分析了各水足迹值的波动周期,从多时间尺度分析了农业总水足迹值波动影响因素,并结合对数平均迪氏分解(LMDI)方法,分析了引起总水足迹增长的主要贡献因素。结果表明:林牧渔业水足迹以3.5a为周期波动,种植业水足迹以5a为周期波动,总水足迹以8a为周期波动;农业总水足迹值3a短波动周期主要受种植业影响,8a长波动周期在2002年前主要受畜牧业影响,2002年后则主要受种植业影响;农业总水足迹及各分项多年来均呈增长趋势;蓝水、绿水、灰水足迹值的变化均对总水足迹值的增长起正向促进作用,多年来农业总水足迹值的增长由绿水足迹主导逐渐转变为蓝水足迹主导。

Analysis of agricultural water footprint cycle and trend change in Shandong Province

The agr icultural w ater utilization situatio n and the analysis o f it s cycle and trend is o f g reat practical sig nificance for the r ational allocatio n o f ag r icultural w ater and the impro vement of wat er resource utilization efficiency. Based on the w ater foot pr int theor y, in this paper we calculated the total ag r icultural w ater foo tpr int and its components in Shando ng Pr ovince from 1978 t o 2014. Empir ical mode decompo sition ( EMD) w as used to analy ze the fluctuatio n cycle of each wat er footpr int v alue.We analyzed the influencing factor s of t otal ag ricultura l w ater foo tpr int fluctuatio n on mult iple t ime scales. Furthermore, adopting the log arit hmic av erag e Dewar decomposit ion method ( LMDI) , w e analyzed the main contributor s to the g rowt h of to tal w ater foot pr int. T he r esults show ed that the water footpr int o f forestr y, animal husbandr y, and f isher y fluctuated ov er a per iod of 31 5 years, the water foot pr int of planting industr y fluctuated ov er a per iod of 5 year s, and the to tal w ater foo tpr int fluctuated over a per iod of 8 years. T he three2y ear f luctuation perio d of total ag r icultural w ater foot pr int v alue w as mainly affected by planting in2 dustr y. The eig ht2y ear fluctuatio n per iod was ma inly affect ed by animal husbandry befor e 2002, and by plant ing industry after 2002. The total ag ricultur al w ater foo tprint and its compo nents show ed an increasing tr end over the years. The chang es o f blue, gr een, and gr ay w ater fo otprints all play ed a posit ive r ole in the gr ow th o f to tal w ater fo otprint. Ov er the y ears, the main fact or influencing the gr ow th o f total ag ricultural w ater foo tprint sw it ched fr om the g reen w ater fo otprint to the blue w ater foo tpr int.