中国省际教育城镇化的时空特征及影响因素

构建教育城镇化水平测度方法,利用变化弹性系数、变异系数、多元回归模型分析了1987~2014年中国省际教育城镇化的时空特征及影响因素。研究表明：① 教育城镇化水平稳步上升,整体呈现“快-慢-快”的时序变化特征。② 教育城镇化变化弹性系数波动显著,教育城镇化提升速度整体高于人口城镇化。③ 教育城镇化水平区域差异明显,省际教育城镇化差异度逐渐减小,省际均衡性明显提升。④ 人口城镇化水平、城乡发展差距、城乡教育制度二元化3个主要影响因素的时空变迁及其叠加作用的变迁共同推动了中国教育城镇化时空格局演变。

Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Provincial Education Urbanization in China and Its Influencing Factors

This article analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of urbanization and the influencing factors of urbanization in China in 1987-2014, using the variation elasticity coefficient, coefficient of variation and multiple regression model. The results show that: 1) the level of urbanization of education has steadily increased, and the whole shows the characteristics of “fast-slow-fast”. In 1987-2014, China’s educational urbanization rate is divided into four stages: the low-level rapid growth period in 1987-1993, the slow rise period in 1994-2004, the steady increase period in 2005-2010, and the high-speed high-growth period in 2011-2014. 2) The change of elasticity coefficient of education urbanization fluctuates significantly, and the rate of urbanization is higher than that of population and urbanization. 3) The regional differences of educational urbanization are obvious, the degree of urbanization difference in provincial education is gradually reduced in 2000-2010 and 2010-2014, and the reduction rate was the fastest. The provincial balance is obviously improved. 4) The spatial and temporal changes of the three major influencing factors, such as the level of urbanization, the gap between urban and rural development, and the dualization of urban and rural education system. In terms of influential factors, institutional factors have a greater impact, followed by population factors, urban-rural economic gap factors, both of them have promoted the evolution of urbanization in China.