中国地区间经济联系与区域发展驱动力分析

区域间投入产出分析最能精确刻画区域间经济发展的彼此关联关系和经济增长的驱动力源泉.依据我国宏观区域间的投入产出资料,对20世纪末各个地区产业增长的驱动力进行了判别.结果表明,经过1978年改革开放以来的发展,不同地区产业发展与增长的动力源泉和市场驱动力发生了巨大变化,沿海地区大部分产业已经形成了以非本地市场为动力的发展格局,60%以上的产业对非本地市场的依存度在50%以上,而内陆广大地区,其产业发展的驱动力主要来自于其本地市场.这种巨大的差异导致了产业发展潜力的差异和地理集中度的变化,导致许多产业向沿海集中.这种态势也预示着在市场经济的环境中,西部大开发、东北老工业基地振兴和中部崛起,在产业竞争力培育与市场拓展方面面临较大挑战,也是必须给予政策扶持的重点.此外,从国际贸易角度看,沿海地区产业的国际化程度已经达到相对水平,国际市场的变动将直接冲击这一地区产业的发展,或从中获益.

Interregional Economic Linkage and Regional Development Driving Forces Based on an Interregional Input-Output Analysis of China

Interregional input-output analysis may depict accurately interregional economic linkage and driving forces of regional development. This paper focuses upon the driving forces of regional industrial development since the 1990s based on analysis of China interregional input-output model. The results show that most of the industries in the coastal areas depend upon external market. The industries with degree of dependence on induced output of external demand exceed 50%, accounting for more than 60% of the total in the coastal areas. On the contrary, in inland areas, most of the industries depend upon the internal market as driving forces of industrial development. The differences in driving forces of industrial development lead to differentiation in potential of industrial development and spatial concentration of industries, and thus many industries gather into the coastal areas. This indicates that development of western areas, revival of northeast industrial bases and growing-up of the midland face many challenges in fostering industrial competitiveness. Hence, the policy of regional development must pay more attention to upgrading of industrial competitiveness in these areas. In view of the external trade, the degree of industrial internationalization in the coastal areas has reached a rather high level. Therefore, the fluctuation of international market will directly influence industrial development, or bring more opportunities to the industrial development in the coastal areas.