基于景观指数和马尔科夫模型的铜梁县土地利用分析

以重庆市铜梁县为研究区域，以三期TM/ETM+遥感影像为主要数据来源，在获取大量数据的基础上，结合景观生态学理论研究了1993~2007年铜梁县土地利用的景观格局，运用马尔科夫模型对土地利用/覆被变化过程及数量转化情况进行分析并对其未来变化趋势进行预测。结果表明：1993~2007年铜梁县景观形状趋于复杂，斑块破碎度降低，景观异质程度下降，景观类型有向单一化或非均衡化发展的趋势；林地减少较快而建设用地增加较快，减少的林地主要转化为园地和耕地，增加的建设用地主要来自于园地和耕地。研究表明，将景观指数、马尔科夫模型结合进行土地利用/覆被变化的研究，能更有效地分析土地利用的格局和过程，取得较好的效果.

LUCC ANALYSIS OF TONGLIANG COUNTY BASED ON THE LANDSCAPEPATTERN INDICES AND THE MARKOV MODEL

This paper took Tongliang in Chongqing as the object of study and three phases of TM/ETM+ remote sensing images as the prime data sources. On the basis of large amount of data,there were two steps we took to start this research.Firstly,the land use parterns of Tongliang County from 1993 to 2007 were studied by the theory of landscape ecology.Secondly,the LUCC process and the convertion amounts between each kinds of land use were analyzed by Markov model and the tendencies in the following years were forecasted.The research results manifested that the landscape's shape in Tongliang during 1993 to 2007 tended to be complicated,patch fragmentation reduced,sight heterogeneity decreased,and landscape type appeared the tendency of the simplification and the non equilibrium.Forestland decreased apparently while urban construction land increased sharply.Reduced forestland was mainly converted into orchard land and arable land while increased construction land mainly came from orchard land and arable land.Investigation indicates that combining landscape indices with Markov model to study the LUCC could contribute to analyse the pattern and process of the land use,and achieve preferable results.