中部地区能源效率影响因素的分析模型与案例研究

利用1995～2007年中部地区六省的GDP和能源消费量数据，比较中部六省的能源效率情况，并构建能源效率影响因素的多元回归模型，对存在显著差异的地区进行案例分析。研究的结果表明能源资源较为丰富的地区能源效率较低，影响能源效率的因素有多种，其中经济发展水平、产业结构、原材料价格和能源价格这些因素对山西省的能源效率有显著性影响。为此，政府应转变经济增长方式，降低煤炭产业在GDP中的比例，大力发展第三产业，提高经济发展水平， 深入改革能源价格体系，科学合理地利用煤炭，增加对石油、天然气等其他能源消费的合理需求，以提高能源效率。

REGRESSION ANALYSIS MODEL AND CASE STUDY ON THE IMPACT FACTORS OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Using GDP and energy consumption data of six provinces in central region from 1995 to 2007,this paper compared the energy efficiency of the six central provinces,built a multiple regression model affecting energy efficiency and did some case studies in the areas which had significant differences.The result indicated that the area abundant in energy showed low energy efficiency.Many factors might affect the energy efficiency,and some factors,such as the level of economic development,industrial structure,the price of raw materials and energy price played significant effects on the energy efficiency of Shanxi Province.Thus,to improve energy efficiency,the government should change the economic growth mode,reduce the GDP proportion of coal industry,vigorously develop the tertiary industry,improve economic development,carry out in depth reform of energy pricing system,utilize coal more scientifically and rationally,increase reasonable consumer demand of oil,gas and other energy sources.